Will US-China trade deal sign soon?

TL;DR: It’s expected that the United States and China will sign a new trade agreement within a week, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. This could significantly reduce trade tensions, roll back tariffs, and open up funding and market opportunities for companies navigating global supply chains.

What We Know About Bessent’s Next Trade Agreement with China

Here’s the thing: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently hinted that a deal between the U.S. and China might happen very soon, maybe within the next week. While we don’t have all the specifics yet, he called the talks constructive, in-depth, far-reaching, and said both sides have a “very positive” framework in place. ft.com

Some key points reportedly on the table:

U.S. export controls. ft.com
China’s shipping charges and restrictions. ft.com
Trade in agriculture and soybeans. ft.com

Potential changes might include:

Pausing new tariffs on Chinese imports. cbsnews.com
Loosening export restrictions, especially on minerals and tech supply chains. apnews.com

Why This Could Be Huge for Companies Seeking Funding

If you’re running a startup, scale-up, or mid-sized company, this matters a lot. I've found that easing trade barriers can make a real difference when it comes to funding and market access.

Easing Trade Barriers Means More Predictable Costs

Tariffs and restrictions usually cause costs for materials, shipping, and components to bounce around wildly. Lower rates could lead to:

More stable import expenses
Easier budgeting for your supply chain
Fewer surprises with sudden price hikes

Better Access to Critical Materials

Tech, energy, manufacturing, and electronics companies depend heavily on rare earths, semiconductors, and other exports from China. If export restrictions ease on both sides, your business might get these vital inputs quicker. apnews.com

Improved Investor Confidence

Investors don’t like uncertainty, especially when trade wars loom. A solid deal could calm nerves, encourage venture capital and private equity to fund cross-border operations, and push companies toward bigger investments. Bessent put it well: “very good two days with Beijing’s top trade negotiator … I believe we'll see something very soon.” cbsnews.com

What Companies Should Do Now — Don’t Wait, Act Quickly

You don’t have to wait for the ink to dry to start preparing.

Run Scenario Modeling for Your Business

Think about these questions:

What happens if tariffs on your imports or exports drop by 10%–30%?
How would your profit margins shift if shipping costs fall?
What if raw materials become more available, but you face tighter regulations?

Audit Your Supply Chain

Pinpoint where your business depends on Chinese suppliers or goods
Check out backup options in places like Southeast Asia, India, Mexico, or even local producers
Look into whether you can renegotiate contracts if costs change

Quick aside: Keep in mind that not all changes happen overnight; some regulatory shifts take months to fully take effect.

Talk to Funding Partners Early

Investors and lenders want proof you’ve thought through risks. If you can show clear models that highlight the upside from any deal, you’ll have a stronger hand in negotiations.

Real Examples: Who Stands to Gain

Tech manufacturers might see costs drop for semiconductors and metals, cutting through current bottlenecks.
Agribusinesses exporting soybeans or pork could find fresh demand in China.
Clean energy companies needing rare earth elements for magnets and batteries might benefit from smoother supply lines.
Industrial suppliers relying on Chinese raw materials could consider reshoring or boosting domestic production, which might enhance valuations.

Possible Risks & What Might Go Wrong

It’s important to keep your eyes open for pitfalls.

Final negotiations at the leader level might delay or water down the deal.
Compliance, especially on export controls or environmental rules, could remain a sticking point with China.
Even if tariffs fall, other hurdles like logistics, duties, and non-tariff barriers could stay high.
Backlash at home might lead to reversals or new restrictions.

Investor Questions You’ll Want to Be Ready To Answer

How much does your business depend on Chinese supply or customers?
What’s your backup plan if trade costs jump again?
How quickly can you adapt if export licenses or permits get delayed?
Do your financial models have buffers for disruption during this transition?

FAQ: What Companies Should Know

Q: When will this trade agreement be signed?
A: Bessent says “within the next week.” Talks have moved forward well, but final details need leader-level agreement. ft.com

Q: Will this get rid of all tariffs on Chinese imports?
A: Not exactly. It seems like there’ll be fewer restrictions, but some tariffs—especially on security, tech, or fentanyl-related goods—may stick around. cnbc.com

Q: How soon will changes take effect?
A: Don’t expect overnight magic. Policies usually roll out over weeks or months. Customs, compliance, and regulations can slow the process.

Q: How can we raise capital based on this?
A: Position yourself as low-risk and diversified. Use solid data models reflecting new trade flows, stable costs, and secure supply chains to make your pitch.

Keyword-Rich Subheading: How Funding Moves With Trade Agreements

Whenever trade barriers ease, capital tends to follow. Whether you’re after venture capital, private equity, or government grants, smoother trade terms send a positive signal.

Venture capital is more likely to back companies with clear export/import paths
Debt providers see less risk when material costs and supply delays stabilize
Governments often roll out grants and incentives when trade momentum improves

What to Watch in Coming Days

Will Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping confirm the agreement?
Which sectors get the biggest tariff cuts?
When will policies shift from paper to reality?
What changes will come to export controls, rare earth minerals, and tech licensing?

If your company is eyeing capital raises soon, this could be a turning point. Start crafting your story around the emerging deal. Show resilience and highlight potential upside. When those funding talks begin, you’ll be in a great spot. Need a hand with your pitch deck or financial model to capture these trade shifts? Just ask — I’m happy to help.